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BWA Market Newsletter

2026-08-16

Market summary unavailable due to generation error. The watchlist centers on HYG under the Weakness Compression Setup thesis.
{'DIA': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Most extended trends vs peers', 'value': 1.1048516356799452, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.9988112505687096, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'EEM': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Overextended', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Waking Up', 'value': 0.23973633509677175, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Waking Up', 'value': 0.1879440718517591, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'EFA': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Strongest momentum vs peers', 'value': 1.0959561268081717, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Highest Volatility', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': 'Highest Volatility (1.00)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'HYG': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Fastest momentum build', 'value': 2.148137892740967, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.25149068889248316, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'IEF': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.19795326099449403, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Tightest Compression', 'value': 0.0, 'desc': 'Tightest Compression (0.00)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'IWM': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.6900850923249867, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Stormy', 'value': 0.5103229081804997, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Fastest Expansion', 'value': 5.813954775999946, 'desc': 'Fastest Expansion (5.81)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'LQD': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Tightest Compression', 'value': 0.0, 'desc': 'Tightest Compression (0.00)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'MTUM': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Strongest momentum vs peers', 'value': 1.1204179486676802, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.1589852174883702, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'NDAQ': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Recovery', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.06983354982676615, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Tightest Compression', 'value': 0.06983354982676615, 'desc': 'Tightest Compression (0.07)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'QQQ': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Stormy', 'value': 0.7888356797967511, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Highest Volatility', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': 'Highest Volatility (1.00)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Fastest Expansion', 'value': 11.703056374400035, 'desc': 'Fastest Expansion (11.70)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'QUAL': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Highest Volatility', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': 'Highest Volatility (1.00)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'RSP': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Most extended trends vs peers', 'value': 1.3093463312859641, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'SPY': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'volatility_leader', 'label': 'Fastest Expansion', 'value': 15.405755824200014, 'desc': 'Fastest Expansion (15.41)', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'TLT': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.1526314405073435, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.22994100015249602, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'USMV': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Strongest momentum vs peers', 'value': 1.690212285803266, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Most extended trends vs peers', 'value': 1.692830179135047, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'VLUE': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Waking Up', 'value': 0.2551776351298432, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLB': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Sharpest momentum fade', 'value': -1.7552416874052421, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.9681123508976898, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLC': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.2588699048508364, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.1752522017767721, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLE': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Fastest momentum build', 'value': 3.188303134108667, 'desc': 'Trend is improving', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Waking Up', 'value': 0.259331505639778, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Waking Up', 'value': 0.259331505639778, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLF': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Waking Up', 'value': 0.494362975324209, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLI': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'outlier', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Sharpest momentum fade', 'value': -1.0975000232985272, 'desc': 'Trend is fading', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.5701181255323435, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Stormy', 'value': 0.5256266785109766, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLK': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.7698895599872414, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLP': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Coiled Spring', 'value': 0.3300155115418259, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLRE': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Waking Up', 'value': 0.4930014398513858, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Waking Up', 'value': 0.4930014398513858, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'event', 'subtype': 'volatility_transition', 'label': 'Shifted to Stormy', 'value': 0.5050057352733356, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLU': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 0.9745263663995283, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLV': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Weakness', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Waking Up', 'value': 0.4136906499271417, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}], 'XLY': [{'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'momentum', 'label': 'Leadership', 'value': 0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}, {'type': 'regime', 'subtype': 'volatility', 'label': 'Stormy', 'value': 1.0, 'desc': '', 'date': '2026-08-14'}]}
QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT: 1. MARKET STRUCTURE (Trend Strength 0-100): - DIA [Weakness, 0] - EFA [Leadership, 11] - HYG [Weakness, 8] - IEF [Weakness, 8] - IWM [Leadership, 28] - LQD [Weakness, 8] - MTUM [Weakness, 64] - NDAQ [Recovery, 8] vs QQQ [Leadership, 100/100] -> INTERNAL STRENGTH (+92pts on QQQ) - SPY [Leadership, 42] vs RSP [Leadership, 16/100] -> INTERNAL WEAKNESS (-26pts on RSP) - XLC [Leadership, 12] 2. MARKET INTERNALS (Breadth): - Trend Participation (>SMA20): 85.2% - Net Breadth Score: 33.3% - Regime State: Expanding Volatility - Extremes: 25.9% Overbought / 0.0% Oversold 3. CROSS-ASSET CORRELATIONS: - SPY Slope: 0.420 | VIXY Slope: 0.000 - Signal: Normal. 4. NEWSWIRE CONTEXT (RSS/Vector DB): No external news data provided. 5. SECTOR BREADTH: - Net Breadth Score: -2 (Positive=Bullish, Negative=Bearish) - Leaders (Strong Trend): IWM (28), XLC (12), EFA (11) - Laggards (Weak Trend): MTUM (64), HYG (8), IEF (8), LQD (8), DIA (0) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INPUTS: - Date: 2026-08-16 - Day Adjective: Weakness Compression Setup - Volatility Regime: Coiled Spring - Momentum Regime: Weakness - Core Daily Performance: DIA -0.21%, SPY -0.20%, NDAQ -0.58%, IWM +0.52% - Focused Tape Performance: DIA -0.21%, SPY -0.20%, NDAQ -0.58%, IWM +0.52%, LQD -0.40%, XLC +0.36%, EFA -0.05%, HYG -0.10%, IEF -0.28%, MTUM +0.37% - Focus Scores (selection): DIA=100 (core +100); SPY=101 (core +100, momentum +1); NDAQ=101 (core +100, volatility +1); IWM=101 (core +100, momentum +1); LQD=2 (volatility +1, volume-profile +1); XLC=2 (momentum +1, volatility +1); EFA=1 (momentum +1); HYG=1 (volatility +1); IEF=1 (volatility +1); MTUM=1 (volatility +1) - Leader (All ETFs): IWM - Laggard (All ETFs): NDAQ - Trend Participation (>SMA20): 85.2% - Daily Positive (% green today): 40.7% - Coiled Springs: HYG, IEF, LQD, MTUM, XLC - Watchlist: LQD - Volume Signals: Filter: within 1.0% of Pivot/R1/R2/S1/S2 OR Coiled/Waking ticker with imbalanced profile. LQD: Price 106.12, near S2; watchlist imbalance (b_shaped); profile b_shaped (imbalanced), POC 106.21, Value Area 106.05-106.78, OBV -138403193, CMF -0.22, MFI 50.34, VWAP14 106.38 HYG: Price 79.71, near S1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 79.52, Value Area 79.23-79.63, OBV -53263817, CMF 0.02, MFI 50.14, VWAP14 79.48 EFA: Price 108.64, near Pivot; profile balanced (balanced), POC 103.59, Value Area 102.95-108.41, OBV 29210861, CMF -0.07, MFI 66.09, VWAP14 106.68 IEF: Price 93.04, near S2; profile balanced (balanced), POC 93.20, Value Area 92.82-93.25, OBV 75405209, CMF -0.19, MFI 67.62, VWAP14 93.13 IWM: Price 305.09, near R1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 291.73, Value Area 290.00-301.28, OBV 47076552, CMF 0.01, MFI 58.83, VWAP14 296.96 SPY: Price 776.34, near Pivot; profile balanced (balanced), POC 740.41, Value Area 732.87-778.11, OBV 51721345, CMF 0.00, MFI 67.17, VWAP14 758.65 NDAQ: Price 97.02, near Pivot; profile balanced (balanced), POC 94.33, Value Area 91.40-95.59, OBV 14446109, CMF -0.04, MFI 45.94, VWAP14 95.04 XLC: Price 112.95, near R1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 111.23, Value Area 105.87-111.64, OBV 22457760, CMF -0.01, MFI 67.73, VWAP14 110.16 DIA: Price 536.80, near S1; profile balanced (balanced), POC 539.54, Value Area 517.12-539.54, OBV 76593529, CMF -0.13, MFI 55.36, VWAP14 532.50 MTUM: Price 317.21, near Pivot; profile balanced (balanced), POC 311.36, Value Area 287.28-313.21, OBV 5514623, CMF -0.09, MFI 47.09, VWAP14 303.13 - Pivot Levels: LQD: Pivot 106.64, R1 106.77, R2 106.99, S1 106.42, S2 106.29 HYG: Pivot 79.78, R1 79.87, R2 79.96, S1 79.69, S2 79.60 EFA: Pivot 108.70, R1 108.88, R2 109.08, S1 108.50, S2 108.32 IEF: Pivot 93.36, R1 93.45, R2 93.60, S1 93.21, S2 93.13 IWM: Pivot 303.76, R1 304.79, R2 306.09, S1 302.46, S2 301.43 SPY: Pivot 777.12, R1 780.13, R2 782.38, S1 774.87, S2 771.86 NDAQ: Pivot 96.87, R1 98.45, R2 99.32, S1 96.00, S2 94.42 XLC: Pivot 111.99, R1 113.16, R2 113.77, S1 111.38, S2 110.21 DIA: Pivot 537.86, R1 540.02, R2 542.13, S1 535.74, S2 533.58 MTUM: Pivot 316.58, R1 319.14, R2 322.26, S1 313.46, S2 310.90 - VWAP Probability: LQD: VWAP probability: insufficient data. HYG: VWAP probability: insufficient data. EFA: VWAP probability: insufficient data. IEF: VWAP probability: insufficient data. IWM: VWAP probability: insufficient data. SPY: VWAP probability: insufficient data. NDAQ: VWAP probability: insufficient data. XLC: VWAP probability: insufficient data. DIA: VWAP probability: insufficient data. MTUM: VWAP probability: insufficient data. 6. VOLATILITY WATCHLIST: - Coiled (Compression/Breakout Risk): HYG, IEF, LQD, MTUM, XLC - Waking Up (Expanding Volatility): None 7. STATISTICAL OUTLIERS (>2 StdDev): IEF (Volatility Transition: 0.2); IWM (Volatility Transition: 0.51); XLC (Volatility Transition: 0.18)


Select Asset:

Long Short
DIA Bias: Short (12.6% confidence)
Support: 535.74 | Resistance: 540.02 | POC: 539.54
Long Short
SPY Bias: Long (62.4% confidence)
Support: 774.87 | Resistance: 780.13 | POC: 740.41
Long Short
NDAQ Bias: Long (23.8% confidence)
Support: 96.00 | Resistance: 98.45 | POC: 94.33
Long Short
IWM Bias: Long (41.8% confidence)
Support: 302.46 | Resistance: 304.79 | POC: 291.73
Long Short
LQD Bias: Short (63.7% confidence)
Support: 106.42 | Resistance: 106.77 | POC: 106.21
Long Short
XLC Bias: Long (42.6% confidence)
Support: 111.38 | Resistance: 113.16 | POC: 111.23
Long Short
EFA Bias: Long (51.0% confidence)
Support: 108.50 | Resistance: 108.88 | POC: 103.59
Long Short
HYG Bias: Long (10.1% confidence)
Support: 79.69 | Resistance: 79.87 | POC: 79.52
Long Short
IEF Bias: Short (6.1% confidence)
Support: 93.21 | Resistance: 93.45 | POC: 93.20
Long Short
MTUM Bias: Long (5.6% confidence)
Support: 313.46 | Resistance: 319.14 | POC: 311.36
Advanced


Momentum Map (Advanced Leadership Model)

How to read: The x-axis measures trend stretch adjusted for volatility. The y-axis measures momentum quality combining rate-of-change and RSI deviation. Use the slider to explore rotation over time.
Upper-right = Leadership, Lower-left = Weakness.


Volatility Quadrant Map (BB Width vs 5-Day Change)

How to read: Cycle moves clockwise: Coiled (Squeeze) → Waking (Breakout) → Stormy (Expansion) → Cooling (Mean Reversion).

Signal History

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Disclaimer: I am a former trader and SWE. I monitor market data for fun. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always DYOR (do your own research)

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